Even before the global pandemic began in 2020, there was already a shift away from metropolitan areas. While there is still a desire to live in large cities, there is a growing trend of deurbanization in some cities where people are leaving in favor of other areas.

What is driving the shift? Is it a temporary spike or a lasting trend?

Younger Families Leaving Major Cities

Data from 2020 shows a record number of individuals are leaving some major cities in Canada. The top cities showing the highest rates of leavers are Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver.

Although there is a trend of urban exodus, there is still a net increase in population in major urban areas. In the Toronto area there was a 1.4% increase, compared to the 1.3% increase on average in all metro areas and the 1.1% increase nationally. According to a report by Ryerson University Toronto grew by 45,500 residents at a time when New York City decreased by more than 53,000. This is interesting in light of the fact that international immigration accounted for more than 90% of population gains in urban areas.

As more people move to cities, the cost of living increases, causing many people to be priced out of the market. This is a trend that has been going on since 2015, but it became more pronounced in 2020 as businesses closed and offices switched to working online due to lockdowns and other Coronavirus mitigation strategies.

A large percentage of people leaving cities in Canada are young. 82% of those who left in 2020 were under the age of 45, with around one third being under 30.

With all these people shifting away from Toronto and other cities, where are they going?

People Shifting to Rural Areas

The ability and option to work from home has given more people the opportunity to leave urban areas in favor of rural areas, smaller cities, and suburbs. With 63% of 25-30 year olds emphasizing the importance of the ability to work from home in their choice of employment, this trend is expected to remain even after the pandemic has passed.

Not all people leaving urban metros head to rural areas. In reality, more people seek out areas where there is infrastructure to accommodate their needs, especially broadband internet access.

Affordability is still one of the major factors that plays into the decision of where to live. Based on a combination of affordability, economic potential, and livability, RATESDOTCA listed the top places to live Canada. This list includes many suburbs around Toronto, including Oshawa, North Bay, Milton, and Kleinburg.

The pandemic accelerated an existing trend of younger people and families leaving urban areas for more affordable suburbs and rural areas. From 2019 to 2020, the population shift simply sped up from the previous years. While 2021 is likely to be another year of continued deurbanization, it remains to be seen whether the rates of population shift will be as dramatic as in 2020.